Are House Prices Falling in Nottinghamshire?
- Record low for property sales volume in Nottinghamshire.
- House prices in Nottinghamshire are lower than a year ago, but are expected to rise next year.
- Homes in Rushcliffe are more than a third more expensive than the rest of the region.
Worst month on record for property sales in Nottinghamshire
A meagre 279 homes were sold in Nottinghamshire in January. The only other month which comes close to this was April 2020, when 365 property sales were completed in the region due to national lockdowns under the pandemic. A 'normal' monthly volume of property sales for Nottinghamshire is around and above 1,000.
This is 63% lower than the same month last year, which falls behind the national average, down by 57%. While the Land Registry release data with a delay, the government publish estimate numbers for more recent months and their estimate for residential transactions in the UK as whole in March is just 9% lower than the same month last year, which reflects the increase in sales volume we've seen here at SAM since February.
Are house prices falling in Nottinghamshire?
The latest data from the Land Registry shows house prices in Nottinghamshire have fallen year-on-year, for seven consecutive months. House prices in Nottinghamshire have also fallen versus the previous month, for the past five months in a row. This matches national trends and is due to the weaker buying power of the population through the cost of living squeeze, high inflation and prohibitive borrowing costs, as the base rate remains high.
For the last 3 months, Nottingham's annual price fall has been steeper than the average across England and Wales as a country, as illustrated by the graph below, house prices in the region have continued to fall as national house prices have levelled out.
| Detached Properties | £355,642 |
| Semi-detached Properties | £225,375 |
| Terraced Properties | £181,921 |
| Flats and Maisonettes | £136,405 |
(Source: HPI Data, March 2024)
How does the Bank of England affect the Nottinghamshire Housing Market?
House prices tend to rise with inflation (2021) but fall when the base rate comes up (2023); the higher cost of borrowing means buyers have less to spend. The base rate has held steady at 5.25% since August.
You can see from the graphs above that the higher cost of borrowing has suppressed price growth.
The base rate should begin to come down by September at the latest, Capital Economics' forecast is 4% by the end of this year and an optimistic 3% in 2025. When the base rate drops and pressures ease, a mini flood to the market will get house prices growing again.
Will there be a UK recession in 2024?
"The Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF), expects the UK economy to grow by 1.1% for 2024, with the projection for 2025 remaining at 1.0%. The economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026, a minor upward revision." - Source: British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)
This, however, is well below the pre-pandemic average. NEISR estimate that Britain's poorest households will not recover fully until 2027.
Would you like conveyancing services for a Nottinghamshire property?
Nottinghamshire property market slower than national average
Sales volume across the country reached record lows this winter, but Nottingham's fall in completed transactions exceeded the national average, seeing just over a third of the sales from the same month last year.
Newark and Sherwood show resilience
Property sales volume in the district of Newark and Sherwood was the strongest in Hertfordshire, and the only district to see more than half the number of property sales versus last year. At 47% down, it also outperformed the national average (57%).
Newark and Sherwood is the largest district in the county and includes much of the ancient Sherwood Forest, as well as bustling market towns and picturesque villages. Newark on Trent is a vibrant, riverside market town offering history, charm and a packed programme of events.
Ashfield was the worst affected down by a massive 73%. That's just over a quarter of the property sales versus last year.
Rushcliffe 35% more expensive than the Nottinghamshire average
Average house prices in Rushcliffe stand at £349,116, which is £123,600 pricier than Nottinghamshire as a whole, and £96,552 more than Broxtowe, the second most expensive district.
Rushcliffe has a strong identity separate from neighbouring Nottingham. The district is largely rural, with beautiful towns and villages which are well connected to the city of Nottingham, East Midlands Airport, and London (80 minutes by train).
Winners and Losers in the Nottinghamshire property market
Most of the country peaked in terms of property prices in the Autumn/Winter of 2022 following price growth which began with the pandemic, at a rate we've not seen since the early 00s. Nationally, house prices have not beaten those record prices, but Nottinghamshire came very close again in October of last year.
The graph above shows comparable data on how each district has fared in terms of annual growth. Below, however, you can see that each district has peaked at different points over the past two years. This table shows how current property prices in each district compare to their highest-ever average prices.
Location | Peak Month | Peak Price | March 2024 | % +/- |
| England & Wales | Sep 22 | £303,157 | £294,696 | -2.8% |
| Nottinghamshire | Sep 22 | £234,907 | £225,516 | -4% |
| Ashfield | Nov 22 | £197,129 | £174,694 | -11.4% |
| Bassetlaw | Sep 22 | £206,197 | £193,571 | -6.1% |
| Broxtowe | Aug 23 | £259,619 | £252,564 | -2.7% |
| Gedling | Nov 23 | £254,063 | £243,929 | -4% |
| Mansfield | Oct 22 | £187,886 | £173,331 | -7.7% |
| Newark & Sherwood | Mar 23 | £237,096 | £226,593 | -4.4% |
| Rushcliffe | Feb 23 | £352,969 | £349,116 | -1.1% |
Rushcliffe wins, three times over
The latest district within Nottingham to beat its own record is Gedling, which reached average property prices of £254,063 in November but has since fallen to 4% under that record high, at £243,929. Rushcliffe is currently just 1.1% behind its own record high of February 2023 as well as showing the best annual growth for March, 1.8% higher than the same month last year, and the highest average house price by far.
If you can afford to invest in the Rushcliffe area, this district currently has the highest, strongest property prices, with fairly average sales volume.
New houses in Nottinghamshire drive up average price
Our analysts at SAM Conveyancing have noticed a widening gap between the average price of existing property versus new builds. The trend is more pronounced in some regions than others, but the overall pattern is obvious. Since the house price peak of 2022, average existing house prices in Nottinghamshire and most of the rest of the country fell through the spring and then fluctuated just under 0% growth.
New build house prices in Nottinghamshire, however, have been soaring ever higher since the end of 2022.
"This disparity in price will fuel nearby house prices up as estate agents use these potentially over-priced local comparables when setting sale prices for existing properties in the local area." - Andrew Boast
This could mean new build developments in your immediate location will inflate the value of your home. Great news if you're already a homeowner; bad news if you're a first-time buyer.
What is next for the Nottinghamshire property market?
Nottinghamshire County Council is attracting investment in infrastructure, the economy and green growth. This will improve opportunities and quality of life for the people of Nottinghamshire, which will in turn support a thriving housing market, and keep Nottingham house prices growing. Their four-year plan aims to:
- Promote and drive the East Midlands Development Corporation, HS2, the Toton Campus and other major infrastructure projects
- Promote the delivery of the East Midlands Freeport
- Maximise the future use of major assets within the County
- Continue to deliver our major sites development programme at Lyndhurst and Top Wighay Farm
- Protect our natural environment when new infrastructure is developed
- Help businesses to adopt low carbon practices
- Drive the development of green technologies
Should I buy a house in Nottinghamshire?
Nottinghamshire is an excellent location to choose to live:
- Market towns
- Ancient woodland and unspoiled countryside
- Diverse education and employment opportunities
House prices are expected to remain static or fall slightly by the end of this year. If you can afford to buy in Nottinghamshire before prices increase, you'll likely be able to switch to a more affordable mortgage rate in a couple of years, by which point your investment will hopefully have appreciated in value.
Nationally, house prices are expected to increase over the next 5 years.
If you are renting and can afford to buy at the current rate of interest, this may be a much more desirable option than saving for a bigger deposit, as rents are set to rise nationally this year by 5% or more (but only 2% in London), whereas mortgage rates are likely to fall.
However, if you are stretching your budget to buy in Nottinghamshire, consider a cheaper location, or saving for a bit longer. We may not be out of the woods yet, and if the base rate (and mortgage rates) rise, you may not be able to keep up with your monthly repayments. Worse yet, if prices do fall, you could end up in negative equity. Buying a home with a mortgage always comes with risks.
If you are ready to buy a house in Nottinghamshire or the surrounding area, we can handle your purchase with a dedicated SAM Conveyancing Consultant to manage your transaction alongside one of our hand-selected panel solicitors.
"Spring will show an increase in sales volume that is more in line with 2022 than the stagnant 2023, offering opportunities for home buyers and homeowners alike. With more affordable mortgage products and the reduction in the cost of living, the housing market can take a breath after a very exhausting 18 months. "
"While the Bank of England states that a base rate fall is "way off" at the moment, this message is meant to calm mortgage providers and the markets so they can plan further ahead through May and June. The delay will help reduce inflation closer to the target of 2% and ensure a longer term of stability through the rest of 2024 and 2025."
"The major curve ball to this is the General Election and what would happen if there was a changing of the guard."
- Andrew Boast FMAAT MIC
CEO and Author | SAM Conveyancing
Sources: Latest data from - Gov.UK, Bank of England, UK House Price Index.
Caragh is an excellent writer and copy editor of books, news articles and editorials. She has written extensively for SAM for a variety of conveyancing, survey, property law and mortgage-related articles.
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