North Yorkshire House Prices Set to Boom by 28%
- Sales volume of property in North Yorkshire has been more active versus the national average, but Stockton falls behind.
- The market will pick up after the general election; government estimates for sales volume last month were already 17% higher than last year.
- House prices in York are almost 2x the next most expensive district, driving the average price up for the region.
- Redcar and Cleveland may be a wise place to invest, with stable & affordable house prices.
Third worst month on record for property sales in North Yorkshire
Just 327 homes were sold in North Yorkshire in February. This low was beaten only by April 2020 (lockdown) and January 2009 (economic crash).
This puts sales volume 45% lower than the same month last year, which comfortably beats the national average, down by 56%. While the Land Registry releases data with a delay, the government publish estimate numbers for more recent months and their estimate for residential transactions in the UK as whole in April is a whopping 17% higher than the same month last year, which reflects the increase in sales volume we've seen here at SAM all spring.
Are house prices falling in North Yorkshire?
House prices in North Yorkshire are 2% up on last year, but 1% down on the previous month. Overall, we can see prices have been fluctuating around a fairly level plateau for about 2 years, after some very steep price increases from 2020 to 2022.
This relative stability could all change as a result of the general election. According to a data report commissioned by Winkworth, sales volume typically slows in the run-up to an election due to uncertainty.
This, in turn, creates a bit of a bubble, as buyers and sellers surge back to the market once clarity is restored. In 2019, this famously drove prices up; dubbed the 'Boris Bounce' by the British media. The data shows that house prices are not always driven up post-election, and the post-election surge is inconsistent across different segments of the property market.
Longer-term, Savills predict property prices in Yorkshire and the Humber to grow by 28.8% from 2024 to 2028. That's 3.5% in 2024, 4.5% in 2025, 5.5% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027, and 5.5% in 2028.
| Detached Properties | £406,702 |
| Semi-detached Properties | £264,562 |
| Terraced Properties | £216,444 |
| Flats and Maisonettes | £160,051 |
(Source: HPI Data, April 2024)
How does the Bank of England affect the North Yorkshire Housing Market?
House prices tend to rise with inflation (2021) but fall when the base rate comes up (2023); the higher cost of borrowing means buyers have less to spend. The base rate has held steady at 5.25% since August, but economists anticipate a slight decrease may finally be on the cards this summer, thanks to inflation falling to 2.8% in May.
You can see from the graphs above that the higher cost of borrowing has suppressed price growth.
The base rate should begin to come down by September at the latest, Capital Economics' forecast is 4% by the end of this year and an optimistic 3% in 2025. When the base rate drops and pressures ease, buyers will return to the market en masse, and get house prices growing again.
Will there be a UK recession in 2024?
"The Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF), expects the UK economy to grow by 1.1% for 2024, with the projection for 2025 remaining at 1.0%. The economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026, a minor upward revision." - Source: British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)
This, however, is well below the pre-pandemic average. NEISR estimate that Britain's poorest households will not recover fully until 2027.
Would you like conveyancing services for a North Yorkshire property?
North Yorkshire property market more active than national average
The country reached record lows for sales volume this February, but North Yorkshire as a whole fared much better than the national average, down by 45% versus 56%.
Middlesbrough fared slightly better than the average for the region, 44% down versus last year. Middlesbrough is the largest town in North Yorkshire with a population of 148,215. It is no wonder the vibrant town was not too badly affected by the national slow down; with employment opportunities and nearby access to the natural beauty of the North York Moors and rugged South-East coast driving buyer demand.
Stockton property market slowest in North Yorkshire
Property sales in Stockton on Tees were worse than any other district, 63% down on the same month last year, seeing just over one third of the number of transactions from February 2023.
Stockton is a relatively affordable place to invest, known for its warm, welcoming community, rich history, and stunning surroundings. We have no doubt that sales volume will pick up again as the wider market continues to get moving.
House prices in the City of York are almost 2x higher than the next most expensive district.
The average home in the district of York costs £309,934. That's £152,038, or 96% more expensive than runner-up, the district of Redcar & Cleveland, at £157,896.
York is a city with rich history, medieval charm, vibrant cultural scene, excellent education standards, a prestigious Russell group university, low crime rates, and your choice of dales, or moors for hiking and cycling.
Winners and Losers in the North Yorkshire property market
Many areas of the country reached property prices of record highs in the Autumn/Winter of 2022, thanks to two solid years of steep growth after lockdown had us all spending much more time in our homes. England and Wales as a whole is currently 3.3% below its September 2022 peak; house prices in North Yorkshire peaked later, in December 2022, and are just 1.4% below their record high.
The graph above shows comparable data on how each district has fared in terms of annual growth. Below, however, you can see that each district has peaked at different points over the past two years. This table shows how current property prices in each district compare to their highest-ever average prices.
Location | Peak Month | Peak Price | April 2024 | +/- |
| England & Wales | Sep 22 | £303,157 | £293,270 | -3.3% |
| North Yorkshire | Dec 22 | £275,174 | £271,210 | -1.4% |
| Middlesborough | Sep 22 | £144,233 | £138,844 | -3.7% |
| Redcar & Cleveland | Jun 23 | £158,914 | £157,896 | -0.6% |
| Stockton on Tees | Jan 23 | £166,673 | £155,305 | -6.8% |
| York | Aug 23 | £322,047 | £309,934 | -3.8% |
Invest in Redcar & Cleveland
Due to the volume of homes and sheer difference in prices, its clear that York is bringing the average house price for the district up significantly. As we can see from the graph below, excluding the district of North, the average for the region would be around £150,000.
Redcar & Cleveland shows the most stable house prices through the chaos of the last few years, beat it's 2022 peak in June of last year, and is just 0.6% away from setting a new record high. This makes the district an affordable and stable place to invest in property.
New houses in North Yorkshire drive up average price
There is a widening gap between the average price of existing property versus new builds. House prices in North Yorkshire and the rest of England and Wales peaked in 2022, fell until May 2023 and then fluctuated between these two points over the past year.
New build house prices in North Yorkshire, however, never came down; they continue to soar at a completely unprecedented rate.
"This disparity in price will fuel nearby house prices up as estate agents use these potentially over-priced local comparables when setting sale prices for existing properties in the local area." - Andrew Boast
This could mean new build developments in your immediate location will inflate the value of your home. Great news if you're already a homeowner; bad news if you're still saving to get your foot on the property ladder.
What is next for the North Yorkshire property market?
The York and North Yorkshire combined authority are working toward an economic framework with three overarching goals, with health and wellbeing supported across all three:
- Transition to carbon negative – a carbon negative, circular and more resilient economy.
- Deliver good economic growth – a global, innovative, productive economy with strong and thriving businesses.
- Ensure opportunities for all – a thriving and inclusive economy.
Supporting a resilient, thriving and inclusive economy will support healthy growth in the North Yorkshire housing market.
Should I buy a house in North Yorkshire?
North Yorkshire has much to offer
- Rural charm and thriving cities
- Outstanding North York Moors and Yorkshire Dales National Parks
- Diverse education and employment opportunities
House prices are expected to remain static or fall slightly by the end of this year, while the cost of borrowing is set to fall. If you can afford to buy in North Yorkshire before prices increase, you'll likely be able to switch to a more affordable mortgage rate in a couple of years, by which point your investment will hopefully have appreciated in value.
Nationally, house prices are expected to increase over the next 5 years.
If you are renting and can afford to buy at the current rate of interest, this may be a much more desirable option than saving for a bigger deposit, as rents are set to rise nationally this year by 5% or more (but only 2% in London), whereas mortgage rates are likely to fall.
However, if you are stretching your budget to buy in North Yorkshire, consider a cheaper location, or saving for a bit longer. The general election may effect the economy and the housing market. If the base rate (and mortgage rates) rise, you may not be able to keep up with your monthly repayments. Worse yet, if prices do fall, you could end up in negative equity. Buying a home with a mortgage always comes with risks.
If you are ready to buy a house in North Yorkshire or the surrounding area, we can handle your purchase with a dedicated SAM Conveyancing Consultant to manage your transaction alongside one of our hand-selected panel solicitors.
"The General Election is coming at a time when the housing market is getting back on track. I don't think it will derail the market, but it will be full of overpromising new properties and buying initiatives."
- Andrew Boast FMAAT MIC
CEO and Author | SAM Conveyancing
Sources: Latest data from - Gov.UK, Bank of England, UK House Price Index.
Caragh is an excellent writer and copy editor of books, news articles and editorials. She has written extensively for SAM for a variety of conveyancing, survey, property law and mortgage-related articles.
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