Property Prices in West Yorkshire Recover Ahead of National Average
(Last Updated: 13/11/2023)
23/10/2023
39
5 min read
Average Sale Price
£207,077
(August)
Price Growth
+2.4%
(YoY to August)
Best Growth YoY
Calderdale & Wakefield
(6.6% & 2.8%)
Least Growth YoY
Bradford & Kirklees
(1.1% & 1.5%)
Key Takeaways
- Worst June since records began for sales volume in West Yorkshire.
- House prices in the region have recovered from the 2023 dip ahead of the rest of the country, beating the peak of last winter.
- West Yorkshire saw 2.4% growth, year on year (YoY) to August, compared to 0% growth for England & Wales as a whole.
- Calderdale saw the best growth YoY to August, at a whopping 6.6%.
West Yorkshire has been affected by the greater cost of borrowing caused by the higher base rate, though this appears to have peaked. The BoE have indicated they will keep base rates steady until inflation is under control, in hopes of avoiding or minimising the effects of a potential recession. When the base rate does eventually fall, we are unlikely to return to such low rates as we have seen over the past 15 years.
Will there be a UK recession in 2024?
"The Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF), expects the UK economy to grow by 1.1% for 2024, with the projection for 2025 remaining at 1.0%. The economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026, a minor upward revision." - Source: British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)
This, however, is well below the pre-pandemic average. NEISR estimate that Britain's poorest households will not recover fully until 2027.
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Record low for sales volume in West Yorkshire
When the Bank of England's base rate is high, the interest rates charged by lenders tend to follow, making the cost of borrowing (the only way most homebuyers can afford to purchase property) much higher. This slows both sales volume and price growth. Sales for the region, in June, were just 1,761; the lowest June since records began in 1995. This is still comfortably higher than the lowest month ever, in Jan '09, due to the economic crash, followed by April 2020 due to the national lockdown.This is by no means a cause for alarm in the local market, specifically as sales volume is down nationwide.
Source: House Price Index (HPI)
What is happening to house prices in West Yorkshire?
The region has beaten the 2023 dip in house prices ahead of the UK which has levelled off before reaching the peak of last winter and is likely to fall again. Meanwhile, average house prices in West Yorkshire reached £207,077 in August, beating December's peak of £206,881, albeit by less than £200.If we are headed into recession next year, we can expect prices in the region to fall along with the rest of the country. However, the performance of the region over the past 5 years indicates it may fare better than the capital, with Yorkshire recording a 250% increase in enquiries from overseas investors since before the pandemic, according to global property development company LH1 Global.
Source: House Price Index (HPI)
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Bradford market most active despite national cool-off
Sales volumes for West Yorkshire reached their highest peaks since the 2008 crash, back in June and September 2021. The national market cooled off this summer after the Help to Buy scheme closed and interest rates climbed. What is interesting is that Bradford's June sales were relatively strong, at 41.32% of its post-2008 peak; followed by Kirklees at 38.47%, Calderdale at 36.67%, Leeds at 34.57% and Wakefield at 34.49%. This latest data shows Bradford's market is the most active in the region currently.Source: House Price Index (HPI)
Where is the cheapest place to live in West Yorkshire?
Bradford is also the most affordable district to live in, in the region, with the average property price at £175,777 (that's £31,300 below the average house price in West Yorkshire), followed by Calderdale at £189,241. Leeds remains the most expensive place to buy a home in, at £244,233. That's £37,156 over the average for the region.Source: House Price Index (HPI)
In which areas in West Yorkshire are property prices rising?
Property prices in all districts are rising, having fallen in the first half of the year. In recent months, Calderdale, Leeds and Wakefield have beaten their peak, recovering from the national fall in prices over the first half of this year by July. Kirklees is the furthest behind its peak of winter last year, with Bradford also failing to catch up.Castleford, Batley and Dewsbury have all seen significant hikes in property prices, due to proximity to desirable schools, according to a recent study by OnlineMoneyAdvisor. Yorkshire and the Humber see the steepest increases in England, with homes located within 0.5 miles of schools selling for 5.67% more.
Source: House Price Index (HPI)
Calderdale is showing the greatest percentage change in property prices, miles ahead of the rest of the region. Triumphantly, every district shows YoY property price growth for August, when England & Wales as a whole fell to 0%. Property prices in Bradford however, for May to July, showed growth falling behind the national average, with prices down by 0.2% in July.
Source: House Price Index (HPI)
Year-on-year growth for the region was behind the England & Wales average through the 90s, but overtook England and Wales through the early to mid 2000s. The 2008 crash brought property prices down all across the country and each district has kept mostly in line with national trends since then.
What to expect from the West Yorkshire Housing market
The ongoing Growth Deal will see 1,400 new homes built in West Yorkshire, as well as 3,500 construction and permanent jobs. Leeds has seen considerable development and rising house prices over the past decade, and has high rent for Northern England, making it attractive to landlords.While the region may see some more fluctuations in property prices through a potential recession in 2024, along with the rest of the country, it should remain relatively strong.
Obvious growth in Calderdale currently makes it a strong choice for buyers, while straggler, Bradford, may be a 'dark horse' for investors looking to spend less. Bradford's prices are currently low and growth is behind the rest of the region, but there is potential for longer-term gains due to its proximity to the expanding City of Leeds and development which may see Bradford's luck changing over the next few years.
Andrew Boast FMAAT MIC
CEO and Author | SAM Conveyancing "I see a strong autumn ahead where there will be more sales volume than expected, as buyers seek a bargain, banks offer more affordable mortgage products and sellers adjust their expectations of what their property is currently worth in this market."
Sources: Latest data from - Gov.UK, Bank of England, UK House Price Index.
Written by:
Caragh Bailey
Caragh is an excellent writer and copy editor of books, news articles and editorials. She has written extensively for SAM for a variety of conveyancing, survey, property law and mortgage-related articles.
Reviewed by:
Andrew Boast
Andrew started his career in 2000 working within conveyancing solicitor firms and grew hands-on knowledge of a wide variety of conveyancing challenges and solutions. After helping in excess of 50,000 clients in his career, he uses all this experience within his article writing for SAM, mainstream media and his self published book How to Buy a House Without Killing Anyone.
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