Semi Detached Prices Stall Lincolnshire Property Market
- Lincolnshire house prices are in slight negative growth.
- Latest Land Registry data shows sales volume was 30% down.
- Property prices in Lincolnshire have actually grown on all property types except semi's which are responsible for the overall fall.
- Property transactions in Boston buck the trend, 20% higher than last year.
- Homes in South Kesteven are the most expensive in Lincolnshire and show the greatest 10-year growth.
- North and North East Lincolnshire have the most affordable properties, depending on the type you want to buy.
- Across the East Midlands, house prices are expected to increase 22.8% over 2024-2028.
Property sales volume for Lincolnshire reached a record low for May
2024 saw the quietest May on record for property transactions in Lincolnshire. This is 30% down on the same month last year, performing slightly better than the average fall in property sales volume for England and Wales, at -33%.
The Land Registry release this data with a 5-month delay. The government, however, estimates more optimistic national numbers for more recent months: "the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in August 2024 is 104,330, 10% higher than August 2023." This reflects the increase in sales volume we've seen here at SAM throughout the year so far.
Are house prices falling in Lincolnshire?
House prices across Lincolnshire are, on average, 0.6% lower than they were last year. The graph below shows prices have been fairly static since falling after the peak at the end of 2022.
In contrast, the table below shows that detached houses, terraced homes, and flats & maisonettes have actually grown in price over the past 12 months. Semi-detached properties have fallen enough to alter the average for the county as a whole.
| Property Type | 2023 | 2024 |
| Detached Properties | £294,818 | £298,591 |
| Semi-detached Properties | £202,024 | £200,483 |
| Terraced Properties | £162,792 | £162,961 |
| Flats & Maisonettes | £111,487 | £115,474 |
(Source: HPI Data for July 2024)
How does the Bank of England affect the Lincolnshire Housing Market?
The recent base rate cut to 5%, and further cuts anticipated before the end of the year, mean that borrowing is becoming more affordable. This means more people can afford to buy, with a little more to spend. This should help to lead to Lincolnshire house prices rising again into 2025.
The graphs above show that the higher cost of borrowing has suppressed price growth which is fluctuating but currently stagnant.
Capital Economics forecast that the base rate will fall to 4.75% by the end of this year and reach a hopeful 3% in 2025.
Will there be a UK recession in 2024?
"The Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF), expects the UK economy to grow by 1.1% for 2024, with the projection for 2025 remaining at 1.0%. The economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026, a minor upward revision." - Source: British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)
This, however, is well below the pre-pandemic average. NEISR estimate that Britain's poorest households will not recover fully until 2027.
Would you like conveyancing services for a Lincolnshire property?
Boston's property sales soar above the rest
Lincolnshire's property decline in sales volume versus last year is close to the average for the country as a whole. Boston, however, is the only district which has outperformed its sales volume from the same month last year by 20%. Boston is a market town and inland port on the River Witham surrounded by picturesque countryside and just a stone's throw from the coast. Get in touch if you need conveyancing services in the area.
South Kesteven is faring relatively badly, at just 51% of the property transactions in the same month last year.
What are the cheapest and poshest places to live in Lincolnshire?
The average home in South Kesteven costs £266,212; that's a huge 64% more than the most affordable district of North East Lincolnshire, at £162,179.
South Kesteven encompasses the towns of Grantham, Bourne, Market Deeping and Stamford, and surrounding villages, for fans of history, heritage, and stunning countryside.
North East and North Lincolnshire have the most affordable houses in the county
| Property Type | North East Lincolnshire | North Lincolnshire |
| Detached Properties | £257,106 | £239,899 |
| Semi-detached Properties | £166,028 | £157,702 |
| Terraced Properties | £122,831 | £130,139 |
| Flats & Maisonettes | £81,843 | £79,978 |
(Source: HPI Data for July 2024)
North East Lincolnshire has the lowest overall average house price at £162,179, to North Lincoln's £180,655, but as we break it down above, it really all depends on the property type you're shopping for, if you're looking for a smaller home, North East Lincolnshire has the most affordable entry-level property. But, if you're shopping for a detached or semi-detached home, North Lincolnshire wins.
North East Lincolnshire is on the edge of the Lincolnshire Wolds, covering Grimsby, Cleethorpes, Immingham and surrounding villages, popular with fishing, boating and steam railway enthusiasts.
North Lincolnshire is on the south bank of the River Humber, which includes the towns of Scunthorpe, Brigg, Broughton, Haxey, Crowle, Epworth, Bottesford, Winterton, Kirton in Lindsey and Barton-upon-Humber. It draws homemakers for its cultural arts, nature, wildlife, and rich history.
Record-breaking summer for house prices in North East Lincolnshire
Despite, or perhaps thanks to, its more affordable property prices, North East Lincolnshire is the only borough in the county which has reached record-high property prices, beating the pattern of stagnant fluctuation.
South Kesteven has proven the best long-term investment
Looking at the price growth over the past ten years, South Kesteven is the clear winner, with growth of 164% compared to 154% for Lincolnshire as a whole, which just beat the national average, at 153% for England & Wales.
If you can afford to buy a home in South Kesteven, it may be your best bet for return on investment.
New homes in Lincolnshire are now worth a third more than existing properties
New-build houses in Lincolnshire are now 33% more expensive than pre-existing housing stock. Not only are they more expensive on average, but they can lose up to around 7% of their value (source: Toomey Legal, Sloth Move) when someone moves in, much like a new car depreciating as soon as you drive it out of the dealership; it is no longer 'brand new'.
"This disparity in price will fuel nearby house prices up as estate agents use these potentially over-priced local comparables when setting sale prices for existing properties in the local area." - Andrew Boast, CEO.
This could mean new build developments in your immediate location will inflate the value of your home. Great news if you're already a homeowner; bad news if you're a first-time buyer.
What is next for the Lincolnshire property market?
Lincolnshire County Council has published their proposal for 'More money, more say, better results for Greater Lincolnshire' under the widespread project of devolution from central government to county councils. Their plan involves:
The BBC also reported this spring that Lincolnshire has been earmarked for more electricity infrastructure, including a hub for an onshore substation and an onshore circuit to connect offshore wind to the grid.
With this multi-pronged approach to housing and infrastructure, the property market in Lincolnshire should see more positive growth in the coming years.
Should I buy a house in Lincolnshire?
Lincolnshire is an excellent location to buy a home:
- Affordable homes
- Incoming investment
- Picturesque countryside
- Lincolnshire Wolds National Landscape
- Proximity to the coast
- Flat topography for pleasant cycling and wide open skies
- Vibrant communities
- Rich heritage
House prices are steady, and the cost of borrowing continues to fall. If you can afford to buy in Lincolnshire before prices begin to increase, you'll likely be able to switch to a more affordable mortgage rate in a couple of years, by which point your investment will hopefully have appreciated in value.
Across the East Midlands, house prices are expected to increase 22.8% over 2024-2028.
If you are renting and can afford to buy at the current rate of interest, this may be a much more desirable option than saving for a bigger deposit, as rents are still rising, whereas mortgage rates are likely to fall.
However, if you are stretching your budget to buy in Lincolnshire, consider saving for a bit longer. We may not be out of the woods yet, and if the base rate (and mortgage rates) rise again, you may be unable to keep up with your monthly repayments. Worse yet, if prices do fall, you could end up in negative equity. Buying a home with a mortgage always comes with risks. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
If you are ready to buy a house in Lincolnshire or the surrounding area, we can handle your purchase with a dedicated SAM Conveyancing Consultant to manage your transaction alongside one of our hand-selected panel solicitors.
"The housing market is in full swing with a hub of activity from first-time buyers. I predict stamp duty will play a massive part in the autumn budget. If inflation spikes can be managed without the Bank of England needing to raise the base rate, confidence will return to the mortgage market, meaning more affordable mortgage rates."
- Andrew Boast FMAAT MIC
CEO and Author | SAM Conveyancing
Sources: Latest data from - Gov.UK, Bank of England, UK House Price Index, Savills.
Caragh is an excellent writer and copy editor of books, news articles and editorials. She has written extensively for SAM for a variety of conveyancing, survey, property law and mortgage-related articles.
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